新築住宅着工件数が減少するワケとは

新築住宅着工件数の減少

景気動向などに伴って、着工などが前倒しされたり、先送りされたりすることにより、実際の着工戸数やリフォーム市場規模は変動する可能性があります。長い目で見ると、新設住宅着工数は減少傾向にあります。

新設住宅着工戸数とは?

独立して居住できる新設の住宅着工件数のことを言います。国土交通省が統計として毎月公表しています。住宅購入に伴い買い替え需要が発生する家具や自動車、家電製品も買うことが多いため、内需への影響は大きく、景気や金利にも左右されるため、景気動向の先行指標として使われています。

住宅着工戸数が伸びている?

持ち家、貸家、分譲住宅ともに増えています。中でも分譲の一戸建て住宅は増加しており、景気が上向きにあるのは間違いないのではないでしょうか。その要因は2016年2月に、日銀が導入した「マイナス金利」の効果がジワジワと効き始めていることにあると推測します。住宅ローン金利が最低水準に下がり、住宅を買う動きが広まったのが理由だと思います。
住宅着工数の水準が高くなった2016年以降ですが、もっとも長い目で見ると、住宅着工数は減少傾向にあるのは間違いなさそうです。バブル崩壊、金融危機、リーマン・ショックなどを機に徐々に水準を落としたことが原因だと言われています。

住宅の需要は減少する?

今後の住宅需要は、減少する方向に向かっていくことになるでしょう。最大の要因は、人口の減少と高齢化の問題です。人口減少によって住宅所有は減少の一途を辿るでしょうし、高齢化が進むと、新たに住宅を購入する意欲は減少することは間違いないでしょう。
人口減少と高齢化の問題は、都市圏と地方圏で違いはあるとはいえ、2010年以降は都市圏、地方圏共に減少傾向の見込みです。つまり、住宅の需要は減少することは間違いないのかもしれません。

中古住宅の需要はどうなの?

より住宅着工戸数の抑制要因として興味深いのは、新築から中古住宅への転換です。新築より割安な中古住宅に関心が高まっている面があるので、中古住宅を大規模な改修(リノベーション)で再生させた物件が増えて、若年層を中心に人気を博していることも一因です。
このような要因のひとつは、新築を購入するのが難しいことが要因ではないでしょうか。難しいというのは、景気の回復が鈍く、個人の経済的な制約に縛られて、しかも不動産価格が建築コストの高騰により新築住宅価格を引上げているのも要因であり、新築住宅の購入が厳しいものと言わざるを得ません。
では、中古住宅の供給は増えているのか? となると、上記に書いた通りに、リノベーションによって再生された中古住宅の関心は高まっているが、現状としては空き家が問題となっていて、空き家率も年々上昇傾向にあるとされています。全ての空き家をリフォーム等をして、中古住宅として販売するわけではありません。しかし関心があると言っても、買い手が付くまでに時間が掛かることも多く、リフォームやメンテナンスにも費用が掛かることからも分かるように、中古住宅の供給が抑えられているのではないかと思います。
ですが、中古住宅の比率は高まっています。その理由は、

・手ごろな価格で購入できる
・質の良い物件が多い
・リフォームによって、新築とほぼ変わらない状態にできる

新築住宅にはない、中古住宅のメリットがあるからこそ、今後も中古住宅の比率が高まりそうです。
つまり、将来的な見込みとしての中古住宅の需要は「ある」と断言できるのではないでしょうか。

住宅着工数の今後

上記にも書きましたが、リノベーションによって再生された中古住宅の需要は高まっていくことでしょうから、住宅着工数は押し下げられることになります。非婚、晩婚、高齢化、人口減少によっても、持ち家の割合は更に低下していくでしょう。高齢化が進むとということは、新たに住宅を買おうという世帯は減少します。また、単身世帯は借家が多いため、新しい住宅を購入しようとする世帯は減少していくことでしょう。
人口減少と高齢化により、住宅需要の落ち込みが続く中で、地方圏は都市圏よりも早く減少していくことが予想されています。
今後の住宅着工数の伸びが続くかどうかは、いつの時代もそうでしょうが、価格がどう転ぶかで決まりそうな感じがします。

まとめ

「新築住宅着工件数が減少するワケ」というタイトルで記事を書かせて頂きましたが、住宅着工数の減少は、人口減少と密接な関係となっていることは疑いのない事実であります。さらに追い打ちをかけるように、非婚、晩婚、高齢化問題で住宅の購入意欲を減少させている一因でもあることがわかりました。
住宅着工数を見ていくと、景気に左右されることで一時的に上昇することがあります。ですが一時的なんですね。人口減少および高齢化問題が解消されない限り、住宅着工数は減少の一途を辿ることは間違いなさそうです。

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